Application of performance metrics to climate models for projecting future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin

Satoshi Watanabe; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Shunji Kotsuki; Naota Hanasaki; Kenji Tanaka; Cherry May R. Mateo; Masashi Kiguchi; Eiji Ikoma; Shinjiro Kanae; Taikan Oki

doi:10.3178/hrl.8.33

Hydrological Research Letters

Online ISSN : 1882-3416
ISSN-L : 1882-3416

Original Research Letter

Application of performance metrics to climate models for projecting future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin

Satoshi Watanabe, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Shunji Kotsuki, Naota Hanasaki, Kenji Tanaka, Cherry May R. Mateo, Masashi Kiguchi, Eiji Ikoma, Shinjiro Kanae, Taikan Oki

Author information

Satoshi Watanabe
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo
Yukiko Hirabayashi
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo
Shunji Kotsuki
Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Naota Hanasaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Kenji Tanaka
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Cherry May R. Mateo
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
Masashi Kiguchi
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
Eiji Ikoma
Earth Observation Data Integration & Fusion Research Initiative, The University of Tokyo
Shinjiro Kanae
Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Taikan Oki
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo

Corresponding author

ORCID

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Supplementary material

2014 Volume 8 Issue 1 Pages 33-38

DOI https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.8.33

Details

Published: 2014 Received: October 02, 2013 Released on J-STAGE: January 31, 2014 Accepted: December 27, 2013 Advance online publication: - Revised: -

Abstract

Future river discharge in the Chao Phraya River basin was projected based on the performance of multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs). We developed a bias-corrected future climate dataset termed IDD (IMPAC-T Driving Dataset) under which the H08 hydrological model was used to project future river discharge. The IDD enabled us to conduct a projection that considered the spread in projections derived from multiple GCMs. Multiple performance-based projections were obtained using the correlation of monsoon precipitation between GCMs and several observations. The performance-based projections indicated that future river discharge in September increased 60%–90% above that of the retrospective simulation. Our results highlight the importance of appropriate evaluation for the performance of GCMs.

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