National Institute for Environmental Studies Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo
Japan Meteorological Business Support Center Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
National Institute for Environmental Studies
National Institute for Environmental Studies
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
National Institute for Environmental Studies
2020 Volume 16 Pages 75-79
The ensemble average projections of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble show future increases in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW) in Japan. We reveal that the Arctic Oscillation-like atmospheric circulation trends cause cloud cover decreases around Japan, leading to increases in the SW.
In many cases, impact assessment studies use the outputs of only a few models due to limited research resources. We find that the four climate models used in the Japanese multisector impact assessment project, S-8, do not sufficiently capture the uncertainty ranges of the CMIP5 ensemble regarding the SW projections. Therefore, the impact assessments using the SW of these four models can be biased. We develop a novel method to select a better subset of models that are more widely distributed and are not biased, unlike the S-8 models.