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Influence of model grid size on the simulation of PM2.5 and the related excess mortality in Japan

Abstract

Aerosols, especially PM2.5, can affect air pollution, climate change, and human health. The estimation of health impacts due to PM2.5 is often performed using global and regional aerosol transport models with various horizontal resolutions. To investigate the dependence of the simulated PM2.5 on model grid sizes, we executed two simulations using a high-resolution model ( 10km; HRM) and a low-resolution model ( 100km; LRM, which is a typical value for general circulation models). In this study, we used a global-to-regional atmospheric transport model to simulate PM2.5 in Japan with a stretched grid system in HRM and a uniform grid system in LRM for the present (the 2000) and the future (the 2030, as proposed by the Representative Concentrations Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5). These calculations were performed by nudging meteorological fields obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled model and providing emission inventories used in the coupled model. After correcting for bias, we calculated the excess mortality due to long-term exposure to PM2.5 for the elderly. Results showed the LRM underestimated by approximately 30 % (of PM2.5 concentrations in the 2000 and 2030), approximately 60 % (excess mortality in the 2000) and approximately 90 % (excess mortality in 2030) compared to the HRM results. The estimation of excess mortality therefore performed better with high-resolution grid sizes. In addition, we also found that our nesting method could be a useful tool to obtain better estimation results.


Publication:
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
Pub Date:
December 2016
Bibcode:
2016AGUFM.A33C0228G
Keywords:
  • 0345 Pollution: urban and regional;
  • ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 0365 Troposphere: composition and chemistry;
  • ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 3355 Regional modeling;
  • ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 6344 System operation and management;
  • POLICY SCIENCES

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