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Economics Publications

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The Supervision Risk and Analysis department is continually developing and contributing to the economics body of knowledge. For more information into a wide range of thought-provoking articles, published research, and working papers created by OCC's economists, explore the links below:


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On Point - Focused Analyses of Current Economic and Banking Issues

Publication DateTitleVersion
12/11/2024 Bank Deposit Growth to Remain Sluggish Through 2025 December 2024
11/12/2024 First-Time Homebuyers Affected by Historical Challenges November 2024
10/11/2024 The Geographic Mismatch Between Housing Construction and Shortages October 2024
04/25/2024 Do Past Cycles Predict the Future of Home Prices? April 2024
12/08/2022 Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Likely to Persist December 2022
11/30/2022 Global Banking's Improved Capital Levels May Soon be Tested November 2022
08/19/2022 Could Higher Prices Boost U.S. Grain Farm Income? August 2022
08/17/2022 Rising Payments May Pressure Consumer Debt Burden and Delinquencies August 2022
06/15/2022 Office Loans in Urban Areas Hold Most Credit Risk June 2022
06/02/2022 Uncertain Business Travel Outlook Increases Credit Risk of Urban Hotel Loans June 2022
05/19/2022 Uncertain Future of Business Travel a Risk for Higher-End Lodging May 2022
04/07/2022 Could Supply Chain Overcorrection Result in Excess Inventories? April 2022
03/24/2022 Supply Chain Stress Pressures Small Firm Profitability March 2022
03/07/2022 Policy Unwind Adds Risk of Sharply Higher Long-Term Bond Yields March 2022
02/10/2022 Is a Wage-Price Spiral Emerging? February 2022
01/27/2022 Banks' Rising Labor Costs Partly Reflect Industry-Specific Factors January 2022
01/25/2022 The Pandemic-Fueled Preference for Single-Family Homes May Endure January 2022
01/07/2022 Deposit Growth Likely Slowing but Abundance of Low-Cost Funding Could Endure Through 2022 January 2022
12/03/2021 Home Buyers Remain in Large Metropolitan Statistical Areas Despite COVID-19 December 2021
11/10/2021 Industries Recovering Unevenly From the Pandemic November 2021
10/29/2021 Used Vehicle Prices Likely to Stay Elevated Through Next Year October 2021
10/18/2021 Bank Performance Under a High Inflation Scenario October 2021
09/22/2021 Asian Corporate Bond Spreads May Not Reflect Underlying Risks September 2021
07/20/2021 Sustaining Bank Profitability a Near-Term Challenge July 2021
06/01/2021 High Business Debt Does Not Represent a "Bubble" June 2021
05/18/2021 Widespread Housing Foreclosures Unlikely May 2021
04/29/2021 Credit Card Delinquencies Decline and Defaults Remain Resistant to the Pandemic April 2021
04/06/2021 PPP Lending Provides Boost to Metro Area Small Banks and Businesses April 2021
02/23/2021 2021 Economic Forecast Uncertainty Amplified by Global Pandemic February 2021
02/04/2021 Do Negative Interest Rate Policies Actually Work? (And at What Cost?) February 2021
01/22/2021 Home Prices Escape Recession Unscathed January 2021
01/06/2021 Inflation, Further Surge in Bank Assets Unlikely January 2021
12/07/2020 Pandemic Provisioning Reflects Economic Stress December 2020
12/07/2020 The Geography of Pandemic Stress and PPP Lending December 2020

Economic Snapshots – Latest National Economic Trends

Publication DateTitleVersion
02/25/2025 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy slowed in 4Q:2024 despite strong consumer spending February 2025
12/02/2024 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy grew solidly in 3Q, but growth is expected to slow November 2024
08/22/2024 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economy beat expectations in 2Q, but growth is likely to slow August 2024
05/28/2024 U.S. Economic Snapshot - First quarter GDP growth is slowest since 2Q:2022 May 2024
02/22/2024 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth surprised to the upside in 2023 February 2024
11/27/2023 U.S. Economic Snapshot - The economy surged in 3Q but is expected to slow into next year November 2023
09/22/2023 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Economic growth remains solid despite higher interest rates September 2023
05/23/2023 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth continues to slow under weight of higher interest rates May 2023
02/28/2023 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth is moderating, but the job market remains tight February 2023
11/18/2022 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP rebounded in 3Q:2022 but recession risk remains elevated November 2022
08/29/2022 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP fell for the second straight quarter; recession risk rising August 2022
05/29/2022 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Ukraine War and High Inflation Weigh on U.S. Economy May 2022
02/28/2022 U.S. Economic Snapshot - Real GDP forecast is for solid but slower growth in 2022 February 2022
11/29/2021 U.S. Economic Snapshot - COVID-related slowdown in 3Q expected to be temporary November 2021
09/14/2021 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth strongest since 1984 but expected to moderate August 2021
06/25/2021 U.S. Economic Snapshot - GDP growth forecast to be fastest since 1984 June 2021

OCC Working Papers - Banking Performance and Regulation

Publication DateTitleVersion
01/06/2021 CAMELS Ratings and Their Information Content (WP-2021-01) January 2021
12/02/2020 Chartering the FinTech Future (WP-2020-06) December 2020
08/02/2020 Hurricanes and Residential Mortgage Loan Performance (WP-2020-04) August 2020
06/30/2020 A Puzzle in the Relation Between Risk and Pricing of Long-Term Auto Loans (WP-2020-03) June 2020
02/06/2020 Profits, Credit Spreads, and Fragility of Banks (WP-2020-01) February 2020

Moments in History - Economic Insights from the History of the Federal Banking System

Publication DateTitleVersion
04/26/2024 The History of National Bank Real Estate Lending: Part II (1981-2023) April 2024
06/20/2023 The History of National Bank Real Estate Lending: Part I (1863-1980) June 2023
10/25/2022 The History of Supervisory Expectations for Capital Adequacy: Part II (1984–2021) October 2022
06/13/2022 The History of Supervisory Expectations for Capital Adequacy: Part I (1863-1983) June 2022
11/23/2021 Shareholder Double Liability and Depositor Losses in Failed National Banks: 1865–1935 November 2021
06/11/2021 The Value of Examiner Asset Classifications: Protecting Uninsured Depositors and Creditors Since 1863 June 2021
12/07/2020 The Evolution of Bank Chartering December 2020
12/03/2020 Value Creation From the National Bank Charter: Historical Reflections on the Complementarity of Examinations and Market Discipline December 2020

Archived OCC Economics Working Papers 

Access a collection of archived OCC Working Papers from 1993-2016

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