Fall 2025 Global Export Forecast: Risks, resilience and recovery

Ross Prusakowski

Deputy Chief Economist
Export Development Canada

In 2025, exporters faced a rapidly shifting global environment where every decision carried consequences—both immediate and long term—and policy changes were frequent and unpredictable.

For Canadian exporters, the primary source of uncertainty has been ongoing adjustments to U.S. trade policy and the persistent threat of sector-specific tariffs. The average U.S. tariff rate on imported goods now tops 18%, up from around 2% at the start of the year.

U.S. trade policy uncertainty peaked, fell and surged repeatedly throughout the year. As a result, Canadian sales to the U.S. were significantly impacted, forcing companies to build inventories to buffer against the next cycle of uncertainty.

As highlighted in EDC Economics’ most recent Global EconomicOutlook(GEO), global growth will remain subdued in the near term—rising only 2.7% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, before strengthening to 3.4% in 2027. These assumptions form the basis of our outlook for Canadian exports.

In this Global Export Forecast (GEF), we expect uncertainty and weak trade conditions to stall Canadian export growth in the near term, with total export growth reaching just 0.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, before rebounding to 3.9% in 2027.

In real inflation-adjusted terms, exports are forecast to contract 2.2% in 2025, then grow modestly by 1.1% in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027. This forecast reflects information available as of Oct. 22, 2025.

The energy sector—the largest merchandise export sector—will see sustained growth as infrastructure investments accelerate. Key drivers include:

• The Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, which is delivering oil products from Alberta to the British Columbia coast.
• The launch of the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments from BC in July, with the startup of the second processing unit slated for November.
• Additional LNG projects that are planned throughout the end of the decade.

Despite a 3.1% drop in nominal energy exports due to weaker prices in 2025, export growth is expected to rebound by 4.9% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.

Canada’s agri-food and seafood industry faced major challenges in 2025:

• New U.S. tariffs and steep Chinese duties on Canadian canola, seafood and pork exports to China by 20% in the first eight months.
• A strong harvest and 60% surge in exports to Europe have helped offset losses.

While global crop prices are easing and tariffs are expected to remain in place, the outlook is positive: Agri-food exports are expected to grow by 2% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.

With more than 90% of Canada’s auto exports headed to the U.S., tariffs on passenger vehicles and heavy trucks have disrupted the sector. Slower electric vehicle (EV) demand has led manufacturers to delay or scale back investments, idling production lines.

Forecast: Automotive exports are expected to contract by 4.4% in 2025, decline by an additional 1.1% in 2026 and rebound by 8.5% in 2027—though future investments remain at risk amid trade uncertainty.

Growth of nearly 8% in 2025 was driven by soaring gold, silver and copper prices, masking tariff impacts on steel, aluminum and copper exports. As commodity prices ease, we forecast that export growth slows to 2.7% in 2026 and flattens to 0% in 2027.

While there’s significant interest in increasing the production and exports of critical minerals—given available projects and investments—most gains will occur beyond this forecast horizon.

Services exports are expected to grow steadily with a 1.1% increase in 2025, 2.3% growth in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. Fewer international students and slower global growth weigh on the outlook, but strong digital services and tourism—supported by a modest Canadian dollar—provide a boost.

Due to tariffs and a weaker U.S. economic outlook, several other Canadian sectors will be impacted in 2025:

• Chemicals, plastics, machinery and forestry exports are forecast to contract in 2025.
• Consumer goods is projected to grow modestly.
• Advanced technology will surge, driven by heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres.

The modest appreciation of the Canadian dollar will help keep Canadian exports competitive.

The bottom line: Resilience amid global volatility

Despite the headwinds from tariffs, shifting demand and economic uncertainty, Canada’s exporters are demonstrating resilience and adaptability. Strategic pivots to new markets, ongoing innovation—particularly in advanced technology—and a stable currency are helping navigate this challenging environment.

While risks remain for specific sectors, Canadian exporters’ ability to manage complex trade dynamics will be crucial to sustaining momentum and supporting Canada’s economy in the years ahead.

For deeper analysis and tools to help you navigate global trade, explore EDC’s Economic Insights hub below.

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