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Early warning system

Challenges

Early warning systems are put in place to analyse and identify potential weather- and climate-related risks and hazards.

All early warning systems aim at enabling early action to save and protect lives, livelihoods and assets of people at risk.

30%
The damage caused by a disaster can be reduced by 30% if an early warning is issued within 24 hours.
1/3
About 30% of the global population are not yet covered by early warning systems.
50 years
On average, from 1970-2019, a weather, climate or water-related disaster has occurred every day.
5x
The number of disasters has increased five-fold over a 50-year period (1970-2019).
50%
50% of all disasters recorded over a 50-year period were related to weather, climate, and water hazards.
US 3ドル-16 billion
Globally, we could avoid losses of US 3ドル-16 billion per year through early warning systems.

Overview

An early warning system is only effective when it can respond to needs and is acted upon.

By identifying upcoming hazards as early as possible, communities can prepare in advance and try to minimise disruption and damage.

Hazards include weather phenomena, such as cyclones, storms, floods, and tsunamis.

They can also include heatwave, wildfire, drought, sand and dust storm, volcanic eruption, earthquake, and other non-weather disasters, such as disease outbreaks, technological accidents, and pest infestations.

An early warning system is made up of four elements:

  1. disaster risk knowledge,
  2. detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting,
  3. warning dissemination and communication, and
  4. preparedness and response capabilities.

All four elements are equally important for reducing the impacts of extreme events. Each element applied alone or together with other elements, need to involve the participation of people and organisations at risk.

Impact

Early warning systems are urgently needed as climate change is causing more frequent, extreme, and unpredictable climate-related hazards.

Early warnings, issued within 24 hours of a hazard, can reduce the damage of that event by 30%.

The number of disasters has increased five-fold over the past 50 years, and only half of the world’s countries have access to multi-hazard early warning systems.

In particular, loss of life due to hazards is increasing in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – those who are most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change.

WMO's response

To support the adoption of early warning systems around the world, and in line with the UN’s goal of protecting everyone on Earth in five years, WMO coordinates and supports several efforts:

The Climate Risk and Early Warnings Systems (CREWS) initiative has invested over US 100ドル million in the world’s most vulnerable Small Island Developing States (SIDS), and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) by increasing people’s access to effective, risk-informed, gender-responsive and people-centered early warning systems.

CREWS focuses its support in a targeted manner by responding to the early warning needs of LDCs and SIDS through multi-year country and regional projects, technical assistance and advisory services provided by its Implementing Partners, WMO, World Bank and UNDRR.

The Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) supports countries to generate and exchange basic surface-based observational data, critical for improved weather forecasts and climate services.

SOFF has four key features to provide long-term financing and technical assistance in an effective way. It has a unique focus and complements and supports existing funding mechanisms. These features are:

  1. Deploying a global approach with sustained international data exchange as a measure of success,
  2. Providing innovative finance,
  3. Enhancing technical competence and integrated approaches, and
  4. Leveraging knowledge and resources.

Related activities

Activity

Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)

The WMO Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is a universally standardized format for emergency alerts. CAP enables consistent communication across various channels in case of hazards. It allows alerting authorities to share alerts through multiple media ensuring that critical emergency information is accessible to all.CAP complements existing alerting systems by standardizing multi-hazard early warning dissemination. It enables alerts to reach people through multiple channels simultaneously, increasing the likelihood that critical information is received promptly and effectively.CAP messages are routed through the WMO Register of Alerting Authorities (RAA), which verifies that warnings originate from recognized, authoritative sources for designated alerting areas.
Activity

Early Warnings for All

Early Warnings for All is a groundbreaking initiative to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027, as called for by United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on World Meteorological Day 2022. With human-induced climate change leading to more extreme weather conditions, the need for early warning systems is more crucial than ever. Despite the urgent need, only half of the countries worldwide report having adequate multi-hazard early warning systems. Early warning systems are not a luxury, but a cost-effective tool that saves lives, reduces economic losses, and provides a nearly tenfold return on investment. WMO, together with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), co-lead the Early Warnings for All initiative, with support from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The delivery of Early Warnings for All requires scale up and coordinated investments and action across the four essential pillars of people centred, end to end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS): Disaster risk knowledge,Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecastingWarning dissemination and communication andPreparedness and response capabilities. Achieving Early Warnings for All requires broad partnerships at the global, regional, and national levels in support of the most vulnerable and at risk. The 2023 Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems report, launched at COP28, analyses the latest data one year into the Early Warnings for All Initiative, which aims to cover everyone everywhere by 2027. An Interactive Early Warnings for All Dashboard is now also available. Global Early Warnings for All Initiative
Activity

Global Basic Observing Network (GBON)

The Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) is a fundamental element of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System that responds to the geographical inconsistencies in availability of internationally exchanged data, in support of weather forecasts. GBON introduces a new approach in which the basic surface-based observing network implemented by WMO Members is designed, defined and monitored at the global level. GBON works to improve the availability of the essential surface-based observational data, which are expected to enhance the quality of weather forecasts, thus helping improve the safety and well-being of citizens throughout the world and bring socioeconomic benefits. GBON is a radical overhaul of the international exchange of observational data, which underpin all weather, climate and water services and products. The Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) also facilitates implementation of GBON in the Least Developed Countries and the Small Island Developing States to generate and internationally exchange the required GBON station data.
Activity

WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM)

The WMO Coordination Mechanism (WCM) plays a key role in curating authoritative weather, water and climate information from the WMO Community to the United Nations and humanitarian agencies, thereby enhancing preparedness and early response efforts. Through the Early Warnings for All Initiative (EW4All), WCM supports crisis-prone and conflict-affected regions with timely expert advice.For instance, during Tropical Cyclone MOCHA (May 2023), WCM curated critical information from various WMO Members and Centres, enabling a coordinated UN response (UNOCC, UNOCHA, UNHCR, IFRC) three days before the cyclone hit Bangladesh and Myanmar, protecting countless lives and livelihoods.By harnessing the collective expertise of the WMO Community, the WCM delivers timely, accurate and actionable insights, supporting effective anticipatory measures for the UN and humanitarian agencies.WCM Community WebsiteWeather4UNRelated video On 14 May 2023, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Mocha made landfall in Myanmar and impacted Bangladesh. During part of its track, the cyclone was one of the strongest ever recorded in the Bay of Bengal. Significant evacuations were conducted ahead of the cyclone. Related podcasts Isabelle Bey, Meteoswiss on WMO Coordination Mechanism WMO Andrew Harper, UNCHR WMO Justin Ginetti, IFRC WMO
Activity

WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS)

As a worldwide network of operational centres operated by WMO Members, the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS) makes defined products and services operationally available among WMO Members and relevant operational organizations for applications related to weather, climate, water and the environment.High-quality products and services are generated using advanced science and technology such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Earth system modelling, better observations, improved data assimilation, increased computing power, and enhanced knowledge of weather dynamics and physics. These advancements have led to more accurate predictions, benefiting operational meteorology, hydrology, oceanography, and climatology. However, there is a significant disparity in forecasting capabilities among WMO Members, with developed Members benefiting more from these advancements compared to developing and least developed countries due to limited resources. WIPPS serves as a framework to address this gap for sharing operationally meteorological, hydrological, oceanographic, and climatological data. WMO Members can access and utilise the most advanced numerical models’ data and applications through WIPPS Designated Centre (WIPPS-DC), leveraging scientific and technological advancements in Earth system modelling. WIPPS is facilitated by the WMO Information System (WIS), which supports international data exchange. By expanding the range of designated and participating centres, WIPPS enhances the global data-processing and forecasting system, enabling a broader range of applications to strengthen the world’s weather, climate, water and related environmental services. WIPPS was previously known as the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS).Related links:WIPPS on the Community PlatformWIPPS Web PortalWIPPS Dashboard

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