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Home > Journals > Ann. Appl. Stat. > Volume 19 > Issue 3 > Article
September 2025 A latent variable model with change-points and its application to time pressure effects in educational assessment
Gabriel Wallin, Yunxiao Chen, Yi-Hsuan Lee, Xiaoou Li
Author Affiliations +
Gabriel Wallinhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7930-6701,1 Yunxiao Chenhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7215-2324,2 Yi-Hsuan Leehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5637-9900,3 Xiaoou Li4
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Lancaster University
2Department of Statistics, London School of Economics and Political Science
3Independent Researcher
4School of Statistics, University of Minnesota
Ann. Appl. Stat. 19(3): 2490-2516 (September 2025). DOI: 10.1214/25-AOAS2052
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Abstract

Educational assessments are valuable tools for measuring student knowledge and skills, but their validity can be compromised when test takers exhibit changes in response behavior due to factors such as time pressure. To address this issue, we introduce a novel latent factor model with change-points for item response data, designed to detect and account for individual-level shifts in response patterns during testing. This model extends traditional item response theory (IRT) by incorporating person-specific change-points, which enables simultaneous estimation of item parameters, person latent traits, and the location of behavioral changes. We evaluate the proposed model through extensive simulation studies, which demonstrate its ability to accurately recover item parameters, change-point locations, and individual ability estimates under various conditions. Our findings show that accounting for change-points significantly reduces bias in ability estimates, particularly for respondents affected by time pressure. Application of the model to two real-world educational testing datasets reveals distinct patterns of change-point occurrence between high-stakes and lower-stakes tests, providing insights into how test-taking behavior evolves during the tests. This approach offers a more nuanced understanding of test-taking dynamics, with important implications for test design, scoring, and interpretation.

Funding Statement

Xiaoou Li’s research is partially supported by NSF under the Grant CAREER DMS-2143844.

Citation

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Gabriel Wallin. Yunxiao Chen. Yi-Hsuan Lee. Xiaoou Li. "A latent variable model with change-points and its application to time pressure effects in educational assessment." Ann. Appl. Stat. 19 (3) 2490 - 2516, September 2025. https://doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2052

Information

Received: 1 October 2024; Revised: 1 February 2025; Published: September 2025
First available in Project Euclid: 28 August 2025

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/25-AOAS2052

Keywords: Change-points , educational assessment , item response theory , latent factor model

Rights: Copyright © 2025 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.19 • No. 3 • September 2025
Gabriel Wallin, Yunxiao Chen, Yi-Hsuan Lee, Xiaoou Li "A latent variable model with change-points and its application to time pressure effects in educational assessment," The Annals of Applied Statistics, Ann. Appl. Stat. 19(3), 2490-2516, (September 2025)
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