Assessment of wind damage risk to urban trees through a real-time quantitative framework: a multi-disciplinary approach with a case study at Beijing Forestry University
- Original Paper
- Published:
- Volume 122, article number 492 (2026)
- Cite this article
- Boyang Zhou 1 ,
- Qian Yao 1 ,
- Jianghao Zhang 1 ,
- Chen Lin 1,2,3 &
- ...
- Jian Wen ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4606-1875 1,2,3
Abstract
Urban tree failures during extreme wind events pose escalating risks to public safety in dense built environments. This study operationalizes and validates a multi-disciplinary risk assessment framework through intensive application at Beijing Forestry University (46.4 ha, 3322 trees). The system integrates GPR defect characterization, FEA-derived stability factors (\({f}_{\text{r}\text{o}\text{t}}\), \({f}_{\text{o}\text{f}\text{f}\text{s}\text{e}\text{t}}\)), and CFD-based microscale wind prediction with linear interpolation (R2 = 0.977–0.986, RMSE < 0.73 m/s), enabling rapid translation of meteorological forecasts into canopy-level mechanical loads. Across 135 selected trees in three high-risk zones, the framework identified 25 high/very-high risk individuals (18.5%) and revealed uprooting as the dominant failure mode—with local wind direction variability causing overestimation of tree resistance when neglected. Case-specific application to two Chinese pines (T75: hollow rot \(\alpha \) = 0.55; T83: 60% windward root loss) informed targeted rigid-support interventions, subsequently validated during extreme wind events (\({v}_{10}\) > 25 m/s). The methodology demonstrates scalable potential for precision urban tree management, bridging biomechanical modeling with operational disaster preparedness.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 32071679) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. BLX202335).
Funding
This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 32071679) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. BLX202335).
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Zhou, B., Yao, Q., Zhang, J. et al. Assessment of wind damage risk to urban trees through a real-time quantitative framework: a multi-disciplinary approach with a case study at Beijing Forestry University. Nat Hazards 122, 492 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08255-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08255-x
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