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Assessment of wind damage risk to urban trees through a real-time quantitative framework: a multi-disciplinary approach with a case study at Beijing Forestry University

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Abstract

Urban tree failures during extreme wind events pose escalating risks to public safety in dense built environments. This study operationalizes and validates a multi-disciplinary risk assessment framework through intensive application at Beijing Forestry University (46.4 ha, 3322 trees). The system integrates GPR defect characterization, FEA-derived stability factors (\({f}_{\text{r}\text{o}\text{t}}\), \({f}_{\text{o}\text{f}\text{f}\text{s}\text{e}\text{t}}\)), and CFD-based microscale wind prediction with linear interpolation (R2 = 0.977–0.986, RMSE < 0.73 m/s), enabling rapid translation of meteorological forecasts into canopy-level mechanical loads. Across 135 selected trees in three high-risk zones, the framework identified 25 high/very-high risk individuals (18.5%) and revealed uprooting as the dominant failure mode—with local wind direction variability causing overestimation of tree resistance when neglected. Case-specific application to two Chinese pines (T75: hollow rot \(\alpha \) = 0.55; T83: 60% windward root loss) informed targeted rigid-support interventions, subsequently validated during extreme wind events (\({v}_{10}\) > 25 m/s). The methodology demonstrates scalable potential for precision urban tree management, bridging biomechanical modeling with operational disaster preparedness.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 32071679) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. BLX202335).

Funding

This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 32071679) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. BLX202335).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China

    Boyang Zhou, Qian Yao, Jianghao Zhang, Chen Lin & Jian Wen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Efficient Production of Forest Resources, Beijing, 100083, China

    Chen Lin & Jian Wen

  3. Key Laboratory of National Forestry and Grassland Administration On Forestry Equipment and Automation, Beijing, 100083, China

    Chen Lin & Jian Wen

Authors
  1. Boyang Zhou
  2. Qian Yao
  3. Jianghao Zhang
  4. Chen Lin
  5. Jian Wen

Contributions

Writing – original draft, Validation, Methodology, Formal analysis, Visualization: Boyang Zhou; Investigation: Boyang Zhou, Qian Yao; Software: Jianghao Zhang; Writing –review & editing, Supervision, Funding acquisition: Jian Wen, Chen Lin; Conceptualization: Jian Wen.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jian Wen.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relation-ships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

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Zhou, B., Yao, Q., Zhang, J. et al. Assessment of wind damage risk to urban trees through a real-time quantitative framework: a multi-disciplinary approach with a case study at Beijing Forestry University. Nat Hazards 122, 492 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08255-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08255-x

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