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Unraveling soil erosion severity in the endorheic basin of Hodna, Algeria: a spatiotemporal responses framework under LULCC dynamics

  • Original Paper
  • Published:

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics substantially influence environmental change and are key factors in water erosion within hydrographic basins, among other essential processes of global land degradation. In the land degradation concept, water erosion experiences quantitative and qualitative alterations shaped by temporally variable elements such as rainfall erosivity and land uses. Analyzing and predicting the changes in water erosion over time is crucial for efficient water and soil conservation planning and environmental management on a large scale like watersheds. This study aims to investigate the soil erosion severity and responses (SESR) to historical (2000, 2010, and 2020) and predicted (2030, 2040, and 2050) LULC changes in the Hodna basin (HB), Algeria, using the Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE), geospatial analysis and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The Hodna Basin, an arid to semi-arid region spanning 25,856 km2, is subdivided into 24 watersheds to assess spatiotemporal erosion severity trends. Results reveal a progressive increase by over 130% in mean annual soil loss from 3248 t.ha−1.year−1 in 2000 to 4346 t.ha−1.year−1 by 2040. Watersheds W11, W12, and W9 emerged as the highest priority due to severe erosion rates with the same trend in studied periods (> 150 t.ha−1.year−1), while W23, W7, and W6 exhibited minimal risk. Bare Land (BL), covering 60–73% of the basin, contributed disproportionately to soil degradation, with erosion rates increasing by 75%, from 28.01 to 49.05 million t.year−1 by 2050. Agricultural Land (AL) showed fluctuating trends, peaking at 4.44 million t.year−1 in 2010 before declining due to conservation efforts. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) underscored strong correlations between LULCC and soil erosion highlighting the influence of some LULC classes among others on soil loss by erosion. The study emphasizes also the critical role of dynamic C and P factors in erosion modelling, with vegetation cover reducing erosion by up to 60% in forested areas. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers to prioritize interventions, such as terracing, reforestation, and sustainable land management, to mitigate soil loss and enhance regional resilience.

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Data availability

Data used and generated are all presented in this study. Datasets are available only from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

References

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Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other supports were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire de Gestion et Traitement des Eaux (LGTE), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d’Oran Mohamed Boudiaf (USTO-MB), BP 1505, 31000, El M’naouer, Oran, Algeria

    Bilal Blissag & Djilali Yebdri

  2. Agence Spatiale Algérienne, Centre des Techniques Spatiales, Arzew, Algeria

    Bilal Blissag, Cherif Kessar, Mohammed Ghabi & Oussama Benabbou

  3. Institute of Science and Technology, Laboratory of Environmental and Energy Systems, University Center Ali KAFI, Tindouf, Algeria

    Oussama Benabbou

Authors
  1. Bilal Blissag
  2. Cherif Kessar
  3. Mohammed Ghabi
  4. Djilali Yebdri
  5. Oussama Benabbou

Contributions

B.B. (conceptualization, methodology, Data curation, results analysis, original writing draft, review, and editing); K.C. (methodology, results analysis, original writing draft, review, and editing); G.M. (data curation and investigation); Y.D. (Supervision, review, and editing); B.O. (Data curation, and investigation).

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Cherif Kessar.

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The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Appendix

Appendix

1.1 A.1: Soil loss severity and conservation priority classes 2000 to 2050 for the Hodna watersheds

Watersheds

Very low

(0–1)

Low

(1–3)

Moderate (3–20)

High

(20–40)

Very high (40–150)

Extremely high (> 150)

Total soil loss t/yr

Total soil loss (%)

Priority

2000

W1

501.98

181.98

109.31

5.59

1.69

0.02

1335591.5

2.19

14

W2

1212.51

477.30

142.32

8.20

2.59

0.03

1783714.2

2.92

11

W3

663.29

308.19

92.57

2.59

0.67

0.02

731977.9

1.20

19

W4

569.19

201.37

80.92

4.32

0.82

0.01

691983.0

1.13

20

W5

584.92

273.39

143.87

13.70

7.33

0.46

1755876.9

2.88

12

W6

322.41

166.03

61.75

0.99

0.50

0.07

444747.5

0.73

21

W7

418.90

154.50

69.52

3.18

1.33

0.09

248134.5

0.41

23

W8

146.07

100.99

72.25

7.94

4.31

0.09

1210609.4

1.98

16

W9

764.06

373.97

253.88

40.11

28.77

1.12

5562767.3

9.11

3

W10

1368.91

541.92

208.53

18.69

17.11

1.38

3033799.7

4.97

5

W11

855.02

414.19

320.75

87.73

84.26

4.97

12563634.9

20.57

1

W12

374.41

172.61

174.30

69.68

86.99

4.16

11154700.5

18.27

2

W13

599.67

199.11

149.46

33.84

24.07

1.33

4432851.0

7.26

4

W14

298.22

102.32

73.03

12.27

12.45

0.35

2021793.5

3.31

9

W15

1176.39

174.64

44.06

1.47

0.58

0.23

277913.3

0.46

22

W16

430.02

161.58

65.14

8.97

3.50

0.03

952765.1

1.56

17

W17

541.92

306.92

155.07

18.99

6.48

0.15

2515710.9

4.12

7

W18

829.61

232.72

126.28

28.11

14.66

0.52

2667012.5

4.37

6

W19

610.44

388.63

116.25

4.00

1.33

0.11

1278606.3

2.09

15

W20

1028.33

392.36

154.92

13.51

5.20

0.09

2085704.2

3.42

8

W21

607.14

155.07

95.64

11.16

3.16

0.13

1417152.7

2.32

13

W22

689.72

156.25

68.64

5.82

1.53

0.25

735992.4

1.21

18

W23

650.99

105.97

33.60

1.27

0.23

0.13

209908.8

0.34

24

W24

278.24

592.61

335.11

5.21

3.30

1.99

1950977.3

3.19

10

Total (Km2)

15522.35

6334.63

3147.16

407.35

312.84

17.75

Total (%)

60.3

24.6

12.2

1.6

1.2

0.1

2010

W1

509.87

143.11

121.52

18.21

7.31

0.25

2200417.0

2.8

12

W2

1327.84

371.76

128.30

9.32

4.85

0.15

1620246.5

2.1

17

W3

658.17

306.63

97.87

3.31

1.12

0.10

832361.6

1.1

20

W4

594.91

133.68

93.30

25.55

9.00

0.04

2138759.6

2.8

13

W5

628.79

206.98

131.02

37.84

18.25

0.60

3418875.5

4.4

6

W6

342.29

159.77

47.91

1.16

0.54

0.03

588437.4

0.8

21

W7

436.18

144.09

59.86

3.89

2.98

0.46

482801.3

0.6

22

W8

133.97

65.43

99.51

22.57

10.08

0.03

2379755.4

3.1

10

W9

711.94

294.80

319.23

83.67

50.28

1.61

8908577.9

11.5

3

W10

1348.76

529.10

206.99

34.78

34.30

2.48

5174096.5

6.7

4

W11

825.82

405.19

326.55

106.8

97.27

5.31

13602532.0

17.6

1

W12

342.91

146.87

195.77

103.6

89.54

3.24

12171495.0

15.7

2

W13

566.34

174.29

193.56

44.42

27.77

0.96

5126425.7

6.6

5

W14

274.06

80.40

98.44

27.67

17.64

0.35

3108053.

4.0

7

W15

1120.33

208.62

65.34

1.84

0.92

0.42

333001.9

0.4

23

W16

297.30

225.93

130.81

10.61

4.04

0.48

1529421.9

2.0

18

W17

468.86

324.56

205.96

20.81

8.89

0.31

2441155.3

3.2

9

W18

762.89

286.87

142.49

25.98

12.64

0.77

2568621.5

3.3

8

W19

544.38

406.63

162.77

4.89

1.82

0.17

1660784.2

2.1

16

W20

944.92

425.19

197.71

16.91

8.42

0.80

2332240.5

3.0

11

W21

553.65

185.61

110.94

14.48

6.30

1.02

1689156.3

2.2

15

W22

636.96

189.54

86.26

6.55

2.35

0.34

888085.9

1.1

19

W23

592.14

142.16

53.08

3.37

1.08

0.19

303534.1

0.4

24

W24

278.16

592.68

335.13

5.22

3.30

1.99

1951242.4

2.5

14

Total (Km2)

14901.4

6149.9

3610.3

633.5

420.69

22.12

Total (%)

57.9

23.9

14.0

2.5

1.6

0.1

2030

W1

386.78

184.64

209.16

16.23

3.85

0.01

2674364

3.2

11

W2

1192.83

472.66

162.09

11.37

3.39

0.03

2094617.7

2.5

13

W3

641.40

325.13

97.06

2.69

0.76

0.02

686834.3

0.8

20

W4

450.22

216.67

169.01

16.98

3.66

0.03

1921995.3

2.3

16

W5

548.61

245.30

188.21

27.95

12.82

0.56

3018862.5

3.6

7

W6

343.30

162.10

44.80

0.94

0.43

0.02

590234.6

0.7

21

W7

414.73

157.02

68.40

4.75

2.07

0.14

368101.2

0.4

23

W8

101.83

86.93

117.11

17.80

7.65

0.07

2167793.5

2.6

12

W9

488.72

388.41

446.16

84.33

51.48

1.56

9753850.5

11.7

3

W10

1252.19

551.73

278.41

37.51

33.67

2.48

5596977.5

6.7

5

W11

767.71

418.46

358.02

109.61

105.58

5.87

15057581.3

18.1

1

W12

314.99

155.55

209.48

104.79

92.75

3.28

12620388.8

15.1

2

W13

482.07

195.63

246.00

52.01

30.00

0.86

6128484.8

7.4

4

W14

238.46

84.77

125.69

31.81

16.97

0.27

3372156.3

4.0

6

W15

1122.10

196.86

74.91

1.75

0.77

0.38

501631.1

0.6

22

W16

291.80

223.58

140.69

9.51

3.01

0.08

1417650.2

1.7

17

W17

422.48

344.80

236.56

19.26

5.46

0.13

3002707.2

3.6

8

W18

749.60

279.75

156.49

29.55

14.37

0.50

2817902.9

3.4

10

W19

459.53

428.99

222.78

7.16

1.79

0.21

1382714.1

1.7

18

W20

904.00

437.71

224.66

19.69

7.15

0.15

2820302.9

3.4

9

W21

530.51

175.21

146.53

14.69

4.19

0.14

1940793.7

2.3

15

W22

624.72

186.08

101.58

7.61

1.49

0.28

1292341.7

1.6

19

W23

594.93

131.97

62.16

1.89

0.32

0.14

183598.3

0.2

24

W24

278.50

592.40

334.92

5.20

3.30

1.99

1948730

2.3

14

Total (Km2)

13602.02

6642.35

4420.90

635.07

406.93

19.20

Total (%)

52.9

25.8

17.2

2.5

1.6

0.1

2040

W1

386.60

184.21

209.41

16.57

3.86

0.01

2690185.70

3.2

11

W2

1193.30

472.43

161.80

11.42

3.39

0.03

2094121.60

2.5

13

W3

643.70

324.31

95.57

2.70

0.76

0.02

679937.40

0.8

20

W4

449.59

215.58

170.22

17.47

3.69

0.03

1952964.80

2.3

14

W5

547.63

243.76

190.29

28.64

12.59

0.54

3039560.00

3.6

7

W6

344.27

161.60

44.33

0.95

0.43

0.02

587056.60

0.7

21

W7

415.07

156.38

68.56

4.89

2.07

0.14

372906.50

0.4

23

W8

97.28

85.25

123.74

17.71

7.35

0.07

2193101.90

2.6

12

W9

481.20

387.18

455.31

84.37

51.04

1.55

9790711.20

11.7

3

W10

1250.77

551.79

280.09

37.73

33.14

2.47

5576255.70

6.7

5

W11

763.35

419.89

362.24

109.08

104.84

5.84

15007390.00

18.0

1

W12

311.25

155.27

214.78

104.14

92.12

3.27

12589890.60

15.1

2

W13

477.79

196.66

249.73

51.65

29.87

0.86

6126581.80

7.3

4

W14

233.65

86.47

129.17

31.53

16.90

0.27

3374076.50

4.0

6

W15

1121.82

197.02

75.03

1.76

0.77

0.38

503007.50

0.6

22

W16

293.12

222.47

140.49

9.58

2.92

0.08

1415799.10

1.7

17

W17

419.93

343.04

240.83

19.46

5.31

0.13

3037340.60

3.6

8

W18

749.02

278.33

158.77

29.38

14.25

0.50

2817009.30

3.4

9

W19

465.84

428.88

216.64

7.10

1.79

0.21

1351112.30

1.6

18

W20

901.80

439.92

224.91

19.50

7.08

0.14

2809259.70

3.4

10

W21

528.66

175.63

148.29

14.47

4.10

0.14

1941341.10

2.3

16

W22

624.33

185.97

102.17

7.56

1.46

0.28

1292242.20

1.5

19

W23

597.19

129.82

62.00

1.93

0.32

0.14

187148.30

0.2

24

W24

278.49

592.43

334.90

5.20

3.30

1.99

1949455.90

2.3

15

Total (Km2)

13575.65

6634.28

4459.28

634.77

403.35

19.14

Total (%)

52.8

25.8

17.3

2.5

1.6

0.1

2050

W1

386.57

184.09

209.39

16.71

3.89

0.01

2697065.5

3.2

11

W2

1193.54

472.29

161.69

11.44

3.38

0.03

2093202.4

2.5

13

W3

645.60

323.55

94.42

2.70

0.76

0.02

674508.6

0.8

20

W4

449.48

215.28

170.43

17.66

3.70

0.03

1962417.9

2.4

14

W5

547.52

243.28

190.66

29.05

12.44

0.51

3036953

3.7

8

W6

344.97

161.35

43.88

0.95

0.43

0.02

584302.8

0.7

21

W7

415.96

155.57

68.44

4.92

2.07

0.15

374123.9

0.4

23

W8

96.30

84.45

126.07

17.47

7.04

0.07

2182778.6

2.6

12

W9

479.37

386.28

458.45

84.29

50.71

1.55

9789152.4

11.8

3

W10

1250.50

551.56

280.95

37.79

32.74

2.45

5551592.9

6.7

5

W11

762.56

419.80

364.49

108.5

104.04

5.81

14939748

18.0

1

W12

310.14

154.79

217.59

103.5

91.57

3.27

12553369.4

15.1

2

W13

476.79

197.10

250.74

51.30

29.78

0.86

6109951.8

7.3

4

W14

232.35

86.87

130.41

31.26

16.82

0.27

3365168.7

4.0

6

W15

1121.77

197.05

75.05

1.76

0.77

0.38

503075.6

0.6

22

W16

294.32

221.87

140.02

9.58

2.80

0.08

1404202.9

1.7

17

W17

419.44

342.12

242.19

19.60

5.22

0.13

3051529.1

3.7

7

W18

750.26

276.64

159.56

29.18

14.12

0.50

2807880.9

3.4

9

W19

470.62

428.43

212.34

7.08

1.79

0.21

1331339.2

1.6

18

W20

901.89

440.48

224.53

19.37

6.94

0.14

2791773.2

3.4

10

W21

528.13

175.66

148.99

14.38

3.98

0.14

1937808.6

2.3

16

W22

624.60

185.84

102.18

7.43

1.44

0.28

1285870.1

1.5

19

W23

600.54

126.80

61.67

1.94

0.32

0.14

187490.1

0.2

24

W24

278.49

592.43

334.89

5.20

3.30

1.99

1949497.80

2.3

15

Total(Km2)

13581.73

6623.6

4469.03

633.1

400.04

19.03

Total (%)

52.8

25.7

17.4

2.5

1.6

0.1

1.2 A.2: Left: circle of correlations on the first two axes of a PCA of factors of RUSLE model for period 2000, 2010, 2030, 2040, and 2050; Right: a biplot of the contributions of factors of RUSLE model and the LULC classes at the level of the Hodna basin on the two factorial axes of a PCA

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Blissag, B., Kessar, C., Ghabi, M. et al. Unraveling soil erosion severity in the endorheic basin of Hodna, Algeria: a spatiotemporal responses framework under LULCC dynamics. Nat Hazards 122, 490 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08250-2

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  1. Bilal Blissag View author profile

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