Projection of climate-induced sea level rise under SSP scenarios of AR6 and influences of extremities over Indian Coast
- Research
- Published:
- Volume 156, article number 481 (2025)
- Cite this article
- Ramachandran A 1 ,
- Ahamed Ibrahim S N ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7348-9818 1 ,
- Madavi Venkatesh 1 ,
- Nivetha S 1 ,
- Pavithrapriya S 1 ,
- Ponmozhi A 2 &
- ...
- Thirumurugan P 3
-
426 Accesses
-
8 Altmetric
-
1 Mention
Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) represents a critical global challenge of the 21st century, driven by climate change and resulting in rapid polar ice melt and seawater thermal expansion. The accelerated rate of SLR, from 1.3 mm/year (1901–1971) to 3.7 mm/year (2006–2018), threatens ecosystems, infrastructure, and livelihoods. India’s 7,500 km coastline is particularly vulnerable, with escalating risks of flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. This study leverages PSMSL and NOAA altimetry data (1992–2023) to analyze observed relative sea-level trends along India’s coastline, highlighting regional variations between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and Arabian Sea (ARS). Future projections utilize SimCLIM AR6, incorporating CMIP6 data and 39 GCMs under various SSP scenarios. Cyclone activity trends (1991–2023) were assessed using IMD datasets. MSL trends along India’s coastline reveal significant spatial and temporal variability, with higher interannual fluctuations in the BoB compared to the ARS. The BOB’s accelerated sea-level rise highlights its vulnerability, demanding region-specific adaptation strategies. SimCLIM projections under IPCC AR6 scenarios reveal substantial SLR variability along India’s coast, ranging from 25.72 cm (low emissions) to 110.2 cm (high emissions) by 2100. Eastern coastal regions, including Sundarbans and Visakhapatnam, face amplified risks, necessitating targeted adaptation strategies. The observed pattern of cyclone analysis (1991–2023) reveals 62 systems in the BoB versus 9 in the ARS, with 67.3% of severe cyclones post-monsoon. Storm surge impacts exacerbate coastal vulnerabilities, demanding advanced modeling, resilient infrastructure, and mangrove restoration for effective mitigation. Adapting to SLR demands integrated strategies, blending engineering solutions, nature-based interventions, and community engagement to protect coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure while enhancing long-term resilience. Addressing the challenges of sea-level rise requires a multifaceted approach, combining scientific projections, adaptive strategies, and community engagement to safeguard India’s vulnerable coastal regions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this article
Subscribe and save
- Starting from 10 chapters or articles per month
- Access and download chapters and articles from more than 300k books and 2,500 journals
- Cancel anytime
Buy Now
Price includes VAT (Japan)
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, books and news in related subjects, suggested using machine learning.Data availability
The data will be provided on request.
References
Ahmed M, Suphachol S (2014) Assessing the costs of climate change and adaptation in South Asia. Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/42811/assessing-costs-climate-change-and-adaptation-south-asia.pdf
Alsaleh M, Wang X (2024) Aquaculture growth and coastal tourism development in the context sustainable blue economy. Sustain Dev sd3224. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.3224
Bhattacharya T, Chakraborty K, Ghoshal PK et al (2023) Response of surface ocean pCO2 to tropical cyclones in two contrasting basins of the Northern Indian Ocean. JGR Oceans 128:e2022JC019058. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC019058
Cao A, Esteban M, Valenzuela VPB, Onuki M, Takagi H, Thao ND, Tsuchiya N (2021) Future of Asian deltaic megacities under sea level rise and land subsidence: current adaptation pathways for Tokyo, Jakarta, Manila, and Ho Chi Minh City. Curr Opin Environ Sustain 50:87–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2021年02月01日0
Cazenave A, Llovel W (2010) Contemporary sea level rise. Annual Rev Mar Sci 22:145–173. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120308-081105
Chanda A (2022) An overview of the Indian Ocean coral ecosystems. In: Blue carbon dynamics of the Indian Ocean: the Present State of the Art. Springer, Switzerland, pp 203–225 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96558-7_7
Church JA, Clark PU, Cazenave A, Gregory JM, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield MA, Milne GA, Nerem RS, Nunn PD, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan AS (2013) Sea-level rise by 2100. Science 342(6165):1445–1445. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.342.6165.1445-a
Das A, Swain PK (2024) Navigating the sea level rise: exploring the interplay of climate change, sea level rise, and coastal communities in India. Environ Monit Assess 196(11):1010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-13191-z
DeConto RM, Pollard D, Alley RB, Velicogna I, Gasson E, Gomez N, Sadai S, Condron A, Gilford DM, Ashe EL, Kopp RE, Li D, Dutton A (2021) The Paris climate agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica. Nature 593(7857):83–89. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03427-0
Devi J, Holland E (2024) Building resilience in a climate crisis: best practices for Mangrove restoration along the coral coast, Fiji. Pac Dyn J Interdiscip Res 8(1):503–521. https://doi.org/10.26021/15186
Dhanya P, Andimuthu R, Palanivelu K (2018) Constructing local sea level rise scenarios for assessing possible impacts and adaptation needs: insights from coasts of India. In: Zhang Y, Hou Y, Yang X (eds) Sea level rise and coastal infrastructure, vol 2. IntechOpen, Rijeka. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74325
Durand F, Papa F, Rahman A, Bala SK (2011) Impact of Ganges–Brahmaputra interannual discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during 1992–1999 period. J Earth Syst Sci 120(5):859–872. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-011-0118-x
Fabinyi M, Belton B, Dressler WH, Knudsen M, Adhuri DS, Aziz A, Akber A, Kittitornkool MA, Kongkaew J, Marschke C, Pido M, Stacey M, Steenbergen N, D. J., Vandergeest P (2022) Coastal transitions: Small-scale fisheries, livelihoods, and maritime zone developments in Southeast Asia. J Rural Stud 91:184–194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.202202006
Firth LB, Browne KA, Knights AM, Hawkins SJ, Nash R (2016) Eco-engineered rock pools: a concrete solution to biodiversity loss and urban sprawl in the marine environment. Environ Res Lett 11(9):094015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094015
Fisher MR, Bettinger KA, Lowry K, Lessy MR, Salim W, Foley D (2022) From knowledge to action: multi-stakeholder planning for urban climate change adaptation and resilience in the Asia–Pacific. Socio-Ecol Pract Res 4(4):339–353. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42532-022-00128-4
Ford JD, Cameron L, Rubis J, Maillet M, Nakashima D, Willox AC, Pearce T (2016) Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports. Nat Clim Change 6(4):349–353. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2954
Gopalakrishnan T, Hasan MK, Haque ATMS, Jayasinghe SL, Kumar L (2019) Sustainability of coastal agriculture under climate change. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11247200
Haque AKE, Mukhopadhyay P, Nepal M, Shammin MR (eds) (2022) Climate change and community resilience: insights from South Asia. Springer Nature, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-0680-9
Hinkel J, Lincke D, Vafeidis AT, Perrette M, Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ, Marzeion B, Fettweis X, Ionescu C, Levermann A (2014) Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc Natl Acad Sci 111(9):3292–3297. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222469111
IMD (2025) WEB Cyclone eATLAS. Cyclone eATLAS - IMD - tracks of cyclones and depression over North Indian Ocean 1891 to 2023. http://14.139.191.203/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2f. Accessed March 2025
IPCC (2022) The ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, vol 1155. Cambridge University Press, pp 10–1017. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964
IPCC (2021) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. In: Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, Zhou B (eds) Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
Jana R, Mohapatra S, Gupta AK (2013) Integrating climate change adaptation and disaster resilience: issues for Sundarbans. Disaster Dev NIDM 7(1):11
Kanan AH, Pirotti F, Masiero M, Rahman MM (2023) Mapping inundation from sea level rise and its interaction with land cover in the sundarbans Mangrove forest. Clim Change 176(8):104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03574-5
Karami S, Ghassabi Z, Khansalari S (2024) Analysis and simulation of three tropical cyclones with different paths in the Arabian Sea. Nat Hazards. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06896-4
Khan AS, Kumar MS, Chella RS (2022) Risk communication and capacity-building: a case study on framing CBA strategies of artisanal fishing communities to sea-level rise using BASIEC. Clim Serv 26:100299. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100299
Khristodas PM, Palanivelu K, Ramachandran A, Prusty BAK (2023) Prediction of climate change-induced sea level rise in Chilika-Puri Coast of Odisha, India: with special prominence on adaptation action strategy framework. Appl Ecol Environ Res 21(5):4425–4444. https://doi.org/10.15666/aeer/2105_44254444
Miller JK, Kerr L, Bredes A (2022) Living shorelines engineering guidelines 2022 update. New Jersey Dept of Environmental Protection, Trenton. https://www.nj.gov/dep/bcrp/docs/njlseg-update.pdf
Moore AC, Kumble S (2024) Community-based conservation and restoration in coastal wetlands: a review. Wetlands 44(5):62. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-024-01818-3
Murty PLN, Rao AD, Srinivas KS, Rao EPR, Bhaskaran PK (2020) Effect of wave radiation stress in storm surge-induced inundation: a case study for the East Coast of India. Pure Appl Geophys 177(6):2993–3012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02379-x
NCCR (2024) NCCR. Coastal habitats & ecosystems | national centre for coastal research, government of India. https://nccr.gov.in/?q=activities%2Fcoastal-habitats-ecosystems%23form=MG0AV3. Accessed Sept 2024
Neumann B, Vafeidis AT, Zimmermann J, Nicholls RJ (2015) Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding - a global assessment. PLoS One 10(3):e0118571. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
Nicholls RJ, Hanson SE, Lowe JA, Slangen ABA, Wahl T, Hinkel J, Long AJ (2021) Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: an ongoing process. WIREs Clim Change 12(3):e706. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.706
NOAA (2024) Sea level trends - NOAA tides & currents. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends. Accessed Sept 2024
NOAA (2015) Guidance-for-considering-the-use-of-living-shorelines. Guidance for considering the use of living shorelines.https://www.habitatblueprint.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/NOAA-Guidance-for-Considering-the-Use-of-Living-Shorelines_2015.pdf. Accessed Aug 2024
Rabbani MG, Rahman AA, Islam N, Michel D, Pandya A (2010) Climate change and sea level rise: issues and challenges for coastal communities in the Indian Ocean region. In: Coastal zones and climate change, pp 17–29
Rahman MF, Falzon D, Robinson S, Kuhl L, Westoby R, Omukuti J, Schipper ELF, McNamara KE, Resurrección BP, Mfitumukiza D, Nadiruzzaman M (2023) Locally led adaptation: promise, pitfalls, and possibilities. Ambio 52(10):1543–1557. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-023-01884-7
Ramachandran A, Saleem Khan A, Palanivelu K, Prasannavenkatesh R, Jayanthi N (2017) Projection of climate change-induced sea-level rise for the coasts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, India using Simclim: a first step towards planning adaptation policies. J Coastal Conserv 21(6):731–742. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0532-6
Ramesh R, Purvaja R, Rajakumari S, Suganya GMD, Sarunjith KJ, Vel AS (2021) Sediment cells and their dynamics along the coasts of India– a review. J Coastal Conserv 25(2):31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-021-00799-3
Sahana M, Sajjad H (2019) Assessing influence of erosion and accretion on landscape diversity in sundarban biosphere reserve, lower ganga basin: A geospatial approach. In: Das B, Ghosh S, Islam A (eds) Quaternary geomorphology in India. Geography of the physical environment. Springer, Cham, pp 191–203. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-90427-6_10
Shaik I, Suhail M, Nagamani PV (2024) Shoreline delineation and change analysis in response to sea level rise and coastal bathymetry along the coast of Visakhapatnam, India using high-resolution optical imagery. Acta Geophysica 72(6):4453–4472. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-024-01341-3
Sahoo B, Bhaskaran PK (2018) A comprehensive data set for tropical cyclone storm surge-induced inundation for the East Coast of India. Int J Climatol 38(1):403–419. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5184
Samanta S, Hazra S, Mondal PP, Chanda A, Giri S, French JR, Nicholls RJ (2021) Assessment and attribution of mangrove forest changes in the Indian sundarbans from 2000 to 2020. Remote Sens 13(24):24. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13244957
Samanta S, Hazra S, French JR, Nicholls RJ, Mondal PP (2023) Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India. Sci Total Envi, 903:166624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624
Saleem Khan A, Sabuj Kumar M, Sudhir Chella R, Devdyuti B (2020) Chennai City and coastal hazards: addressing community-based adaptation through the lens of climate change and sea-level rise (CBACCS). In: Leal Filho W, Nagy G, Borga M, Chávez Muñoz P, Magnuszewski A (eds) Climate change, hazards and adaptation options. Climate change management. Springer, Cham. pp 777–798. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_39
Schoonees T, Gijón Mancheño A, Scheres B, Bouma TJ, Silva R, Schlurmann T, Schüttrumpf H (2019) Hard structures for coastal protection, towards greener designs. Estuaries Coasts 42(7):1709–1729. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-019-00551-z
Singh AK (2020) Coastal agriculture and future challenges. In: Singh A, Fernando RLS, Haran NP (eds) Development in coastal zones and disaster management. Disaster research and management series on the global south. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore, pp 61–86. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4294-7_5
Singh AP, Mishra OP, Pandey AP, Bhatla R (2024) Seismic signature of the super cyclone Amphan in Bay of Bengal using coastal observatories operating under national seismological network of India. Earth Space Sci 11(4):e2023EA003191. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EA003191
Subramanian A, Nagarajan AM, Vinod S, Chakraborty S, Sivagami K, Theodore T, Sathyanarayanan SS, Tamizhdurai P, Mangesh VL (2023) Long-term impacts of climate change on coastal and transitional eco-systems in India: an overview of its current status, future projections, solutions, and policies. RSC Adv 13(18):12204–12228. https://doi.org/10.1039/D2RA07448F
Swapna P, Ravichandran M, Nidheesh G, Jyoti J, Sandeep N, Deepa JS, Unnikrishnan AS (2020) Sea-level rise. In: Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Gnanaseelan C, Mujumdar M, Kulkarni A, Chakraborty S (eds) Assessment of climate change over the Indian Region. Springer, Singapore, pp 175–189. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4327-2_9
Tang A, Ames D, McLaughlin J, Murugesh G, Plant G, Yashinsky M, Eskijian M, Surrampalli R, Murthy PAK, Prasad M, Gandhi P (2006) Coastal Indian lifelines after the 2004 great Sumatra earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami. Earthq Spectra 22(3suppl):607–639. https://doi.org/10.1193/1.2206089
Temmerman S, Meire P, Bouma TJ, Herman PMJ, Ysebaert T, De Vriend HJ (2013) Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change. Nature 504(7478):79–83. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12859
Tinh PH, MacKenzie RA, Hung TD, Vinh TV, Ha HT, Lam MH, Hanh NTH, Tung NX, Hai PM, Huyen BT (2022) Mangrove restoration in Vietnamese Mekong Delta during 2015–2020: achievements and challenges. Front Mar Sci 9:1043943. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.1043943
Tompkins EL, Adger WN (2004) Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change? Ecol Soc 9(2):JSTOR
UNESCO (2023) The sundarbans. World herit centre united nations educational sci cult organ. https://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/8287/. Accessed Apr 2024
Unnikrishnan AS, Shankar D (2007) Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the North Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates? Glob Planet Change 57(3):301–307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006年11月02日9
Venkataraman K (2011) Coral reefs of India. In: Hopley D (ed) Encyclopedia of modern coral reefs. Encyclopedia of earth sciences series. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 267–275. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2639-2_64
Wilson B, Andrews EA, Cobb D, Gladfelter S (2024) Facilitating climate adaptation: the resilience adaptation feasibility tool (RAFT) framework. Local Dev Soc 1–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/26883597.2024.2364266
World Bank (2022) Strengthening community-driven development in East Asia, South Asia, and the pacific. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/08/24/strengthening-community-driven-development-in-east-asia-south-asia-and-the-pacific. Accessed Jun 2024
Yin C, Li Y, Urich P (2023) SimCLIM AR6 data manual. Achilles Rise, Flagstaff, Hamilton 3210 New Zealand. https://climsystems.com/simclim/. Accessed Apr 2024
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Department of Environment and Climate Change, Government of Tamil Nadu, for funding through "Operationalization of Climate Studio" vide. G.O. (Ms.) No.22 ENVIRONMENT.CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST (EC2) DEPARTMENT dated 03.02.2022. The author (Ahamed Ibrahim S N) thanks the grant support by the Department of Science and Technology, Climate Change Programme, Govt. of India (DST/CCP/NMSKCC/SCCC/Tamilnadu/220/2023 dated 30/03/2023) for NMSKCC Phase II.
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Conflicts of interest/competing interests
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ramachandran A, Ahamed Ibrahim S N, Madavi Venkatesh et al. Projection of climate-induced sea level rise under SSP scenarios of AR6 and influences of extremities over Indian Coast. Theor Appl Climatol 156, 481 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05683-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Version of record:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05683-w
Share this article
Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative
Profiles
- Ahamed Ibrahim S N View author profile