Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
目次
Preface
1. Editors' introduction
Part I. New Concepts and Methods: 2. Toward a theory of leading indicators Frank de Leeuw
3. A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators Salih N. Neftci
4. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
5. An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signalling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators Michael P. Niemira
6. On predicting the stage of the business cycle Roy H. Webb
7. Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time series: sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong
8. New developments in leading economic indicators Geoffrey H. Moore
Part II. Forecasting Records and Methods of Evaluation: 9. Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions Stephen K. McNees
10. Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures Hermon O. Stekler
11. Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle: on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series Stephen J. Silver
12. Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find right ball park for real GNP forecasts Edward F. Renshaw
13. Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators Allan P. Layton
14. Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: an exante analysis Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch
15. Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore
16. Leading indicators of inflation Howard L. Roth
Part III. New Economic Indicators: 17. Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation James M. Boughton and William H. Branson
18. A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri
19. Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in stock market Michael P. Niemira
20. Economic indicators for Australia's service sector Ernst A. Boehm
21. Purchasing management survey data: their value as leading indicator Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore
22. An agenda for inventories input to leading composite index Feliks Tamm