A two-state solution is the only viable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and therefore negotiators must take a close look at the land swaps necessary for a negotiated settlement. These maps outline
three possible land-swap scenarios, followed by a map of the Geneva Initiative for comparison. The core principle of these swaps
is to reconcile the Palestinian demand for a return to the pre-1967 lines with Israel’s desire to include as many of the West Bank’s 300,000 settlers in Israel proper as possible. Any feasible
scenario must include Israel's granting Palestinians arable land from within Israel’s pre-1967 border in exchange for annexed settlement blocs (clusters of settlements). It is essential that,
for any land annexed by Israel as part of a deal, Palestinians receive equal amounts of land.
During the failed 2008 peace negotiations, the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, wanted a total swap of 6.3 percent, while Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, would agree to no more than 1.9 percent.
These three maps explore and illustrate the middle ground between Mr. Olmert’s and Mr. Abbas’s proposals. Contrary to popular belief, most Israeli settlers are concentrated near the 1967 boundary.
As a result, the scenarios outlined below could spare 68 percent to 80 percent of settlers dislocation from their homes by annexing 3.72 percent to 4.73 percent of the land. This would establish a contiguous
Palestinian state equal in size to the area of the West Bank and Gaza Strip combined. These three maps show how it could be done. Read more about these proposals »
Land Swap Proposals
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Geneva Option
Israel annexes most disputed settlement blocs: Ariel, north of Ariel, expanded Ofra/Beit El and Kfar Adumim town. Kiryat Arba and Kedumim are excluded. Option 1 requires the greatest land exchange between
Israel and the Palestinians.
113
Area of land to be
swapped (sq. miles)
Land going to Palestine
59,782
settlers (20% of all)
95.27%
of baseline territory
Land going to Israel
239,246
settlers (80% of all)
4.73%
of baseline territory
Israel does not annex expanded Ofra/Beit El, where many settler leaders affiliated with the religious Zionist movement are located. Thirty-eight settlements would be under Israeli jurisdiction, including
blocs in and north of Ariel.
103
Area of land to be
swapped (sq. miles)
Land going to Palestine
79,805
settlers (27% of all)
95.69%
of baseline territory
Land going to Israel
219,223
settlers (73% of all)
4.31%
of baseline territory
Israel does not annex the settlements in expanded Ofra/Beit El (already excluded in option 2), the bloc north of Ariel, or Kfar Adumim, which collectively hold more than 34,400 people.
89
Area of land to be
swapped (sq. miles)
Land going to Palestine
94,226
settlers (32% of all)
96.28%
of baseline territory
Land going to Israel
204,802
settlers (68% of all)
3.72%
of baseline territory
This map was conceptualized in the 2003 Geneva discussions, conducted by former Israeli and Palestinian officials. Each of the first three options would entail a larger land swap than envisioned in this
proposal.
53
Area of land to be
swapped (sq. miles)
Land going to Palestine
132,599
settlers (44% of all)
97.81%
of baseline territory
Land going to Israel
166,429
settlers (57% of all)
2.19%
of baseline territory
Gaza
Halutza could serve either as farmland or as an industrial site, since most of Gaza’s economy is nonagricultural. Joining this area to Gaza would also help to relieve Gaza’s population-density problems.
Gaza
In this option, the proposed area of Halutza is smaller than in option 1, but larger than in option 3.
Gaza
In this option, the proposed area of Halutza is smaller than in both option 1 and option 2.
Map of land swap options
North of Ariel
(Pop. 11,621)
Most settlers in this bloc are tied to Gush Emunim, a religious political movement dedicated to expanding the Jewish presence in the West Bank.
Ariel
(Pop. 19,737)
The city of Ariel is home to many immigrants from the former Soviet Union. The bloc’s 10.5-mile protrusion into the West Bank makes it highly contentious.
Expanded Ofra/Beit El
(Pop. 20,023)
This bloc is contentious because it is home to many leaders of the religious Zionist movement, but is located near the Palestinian administrative center in Ramallah.
North of Jerusalem
(Pop. 15,866)
Many Israelis view Givat Zeev, part of this bloc, as a northwest suburb of Jerusalem.
East Jerusalem Jewish Neighborhoods
(Pop. 189,211)
In this option, counting Jewish residents of East Jerusalem alongside West Bank settlers puts the total figure of settlers living in annexed lands at 428,457, or 87.76% of total settlers.
Gush Etzion/Beitar Illit
(Pop. 54,012)
A majority of settlers in Gush Etzion belong to the Gush Emunim movement, while Beitar Illit is ultra-Orthodox with a high birthrate. Palestinians acknowledge Gush Etzion’s Jewish historical roots, but the adjacent Palestinian villages make it unlikely that Israel will annex outlying parts of the bloc, like Nokdim and Tekoa. Route 60, nearby, could be rerouted without major inconvenience.
For more information on the blocs Western Edge/Modiin Illit, Maale Adumim/Kfar Adumim and Southern Edge, see option 2.
Map of land swap options
Western Edge/Modiin Illit
(Pop. 79,687)
Modiin Illit is almost completely ultra-Orthodox and has a very high birthrate. Its proximity to the Green Line makes it less controversial to the Palestinians. Though the remaining area in this bloc is sparsely populated, it is annexed in all three options to serve as an essential buffer zone in preventing attacks on nearby Ben Gurion International Airport.
East Jerusalem Jewish Neighborhoods
(Pop. 189,211)
Counting Jewish residents of East Jerusalem alongside West Bank settlers puts the total figure of settlers living in annexed lands at more than 408,434, or 83.65% of total settlers.
Maale Adumim/Kfar Adumim
(Pop. 34,600)
Because of its size and proximity to Jerusalem, the city of Maale Adumim is viewed by many Israelis as a suburb of Jerusalem rather than a settlement. Most Palestinians realize that Israel will not dismantle Maale Adumim, but they fear that construing the Maale Adumim bloc more broadly will extend it too close to Jericho and interrupt the north-south territorial contiguity of Palestine.
No Man’s Land
No Man's Land separated combatants during the 1949 armistice and was not sovereign soil. Accordingly, only half of No Man’s Land is included in the baseline figure. Because the main highway between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem runs through this area, Israel would gain sovereignty of this stretch of land in all three scenarios and exchange equal territory with the Palestinians.
Southern Edge
(Pop. 900)
Composed of two towns, Metzadot Yehuda (or Beit Yatir) and Shani, this bloc is annexed by Israel in all three scenarios.
Map of land swap options
Ariel
(Pop. 19,737)
Because of the Ariel bloc’s large population, this option suggests instead a more palatable Israeli concession of the North of Ariel bloc, which protrudes almost as far into the West Bank as Ariel.
East Jerusalem Jewish Neighborhoods
(Pop. 189,211)
Counting Jewish residents of East Jerusalem alongside West Bank settlers puts the total figure of settlers living in annexed lands at more than 394,013, or 80.70 percent of total settlers.
Maale Adumim/Kfar Adumim
(Pop. 37,400)
Kfar Adumim is not annexed in this option, as Palestinians believe that its annexation would facilitate Israeli travel between the Dead Sea and Jericho. Israelis appear divided over Kfar Adumim’s security value.
Gush Etzion/Beitar Illit
(Pop. 54,012)
Israel could not annex this bloc without a direct route to Jerusalem. Options 1-3 propose an Israeli annexation of the section of Route 60 that leads directly to Jerusalem. The current two tunnels, including that below the town of Beit Jala, will allow Palestinians to exercise sovereignty over the land above (maintaining territorial contiguity), while Israelis would have sovereignty over the lower route.
Map of land swap options
The Proposal
This smaller swap proposal would have allowed only 166,429 settlers - barely more than half of the total settlement population – to remain in their current homes and be annexed into Israel. This would have required uprooting 132,599 settlers in 101 settlements — 38,373 more than the number called for in option 3, and 72,817 more than in option 1.
A Comparison
To put these numbers in context, the entire 2005 Gaza disengagement required Israel to move only 8,000 settlers, a process that left the country shaken.
An Evaluation
Proposals modeled on the Geneva approach of uprooting much larger numbers of settlers could prompt serious social unrest in Israel, in addition to giving far fewer settlers a stake in supporting a peace agreement. The scenarios outlined in options 1, 2 and 3 could sharply decrease societal turmoil in Israel while maintaining the same 1:1 land swap ratio that characterized the Geneva exercise. However, grass-roots efforts promoting the Geneva initiative are continuing, as it remains the only land-swap proposal that already has both Israeli and Palestinian signatories.