Qualification scenarios - What the top five have to do
While England, Australia and India need one more win to qualify, New Zealand and South Africa might need to win both their remaining matches
Shiva Jayaraman
12-Jul-2017
Meg Lanning was back to lead Australia, Australia v England, Women's World Cup, Bristol, July 9, 2017
In spite of their loss to England, Australia look the best-placed team to qualify to the semi-finals of the 2017 Women's World Cup • Getty Images
The five teams that are currently at the top of the points table are still in contention for a place in the semi-finals of the 2017 Women's World Cup. As things stand now, five wins guarantee teams a place in the semis. While England, Australia and India need one more win to book a place in the last-four, New Zealand and South Africa might have to win both their remaining matches to guarantee a place in the knockouts - number of wins is the first tie-breaker after points, followed by NRR*. However, qualification on 8 or 7 points is still a possibility for teams - a more realistic one for some than the others.
Assuming all the remaining matches end in a result, here's what the teams have to do to book a place in the semi-finals of this World Cup.
England
Still to play: New Zealand and West Indies
England are through to the semis should they win one of their remaining matches. Given their healthy NRR, they are the best-placed team to qualify for the last four on eight points too - that is, without another win - provided one of the other four teams in contention, preferably South Africa or New Zealand, lose both their matches.
Still to play: New Zealand and West Indies
England are through to the semis should they win one of their remaining matches. Given their healthy NRR, they are the best-placed team to qualify for the last four on eight points too - that is, without another win - provided one of the other four teams in contention, preferably South Africa or New Zealand, lose both their matches.
Australia
Still to play: India and South Africa
They will be assured of a place in the semis if they win any one of their two remaining games. Even if Australia lose both their remaining matches, they could qualify on points ahead of New Zealand if the latter ends up losing both their remaining games. They could also qualify ahead of England on NRR if England lose both their remaining matches.
Still to play: India and South Africa
They will be assured of a place in the semis if they win any one of their two remaining games. Even if Australia lose both their remaining matches, they could qualify on points ahead of New Zealand if the latter ends up losing both their remaining games. They could also qualify ahead of England on NRR if England lose both their remaining matches.
India
Still to play: Australia and New Zealand
A win in one their remaining games will assure them of a place in the semis. England's win against Australia has drastically slashed the odds of India qualifying with just four wins. Nevertheless, it is still a mathematical possibility and could happen in one of the following two ways: South Africa lose both their remaining matches - an unlikely event considering that South Africa play their next match against the less fancied Sri Lanka - or, England lose both their matches by very heavy margins so that the teams are tied on 8 points and India's NRR (number of wins being the same) manages to creep above England's.
Still to play: Australia and New Zealand
A win in one their remaining games will assure them of a place in the semis. England's win against Australia has drastically slashed the odds of India qualifying with just four wins. Nevertheless, it is still a mathematical possibility and could happen in one of the following two ways: South Africa lose both their remaining matches - an unlikely event considering that South Africa play their next match against the less fancied Sri Lanka - or, England lose both their matches by very heavy margins so that the teams are tied on 8 points and India's NRR (number of wins being the same) manages to creep above England's.
New Zealand
Still to play: India and England
They could go through even with one win if one of the other four teams in contention lose both their remaining games. However, if South Africa also win only one of their remaining games and the all the three other teams in contention manage to win at least one match each, then it will be down to NRR between South Africa and New Zealand for a place in the semis. Provided they don't lose their games by a very big margin, New Zealand are likely to come on top in the NRR battle.
Still to play: India and England
They could go through even with one win if one of the other four teams in contention lose both their remaining games. However, if South Africa also win only one of their remaining games and the all the three other teams in contention manage to win at least one match each, then it will be down to NRR between South Africa and New Zealand for a place in the semis. Provided they don't lose their games by a very big margin, New Zealand are likely to come on top in the NRR battle.
South Africa
Still to play: Sri Lanka and Australia
Their situation is similar to that of New Zealand's. They could go through with only one win provided one of the other teams in contention lose both their matches. A tie for the fourth place on 9 points with New Zealand is a possibility for South Africa and they should make sure that they boost up their NRR as much as possible in their match against Sri Lanka. A tie for the fourth place on seven points with New Zealand is likely to not end well for South Africa as New Zealand currently have the healthiest NRR among all teams.
Still to play: Sri Lanka and Australia
Their situation is similar to that of New Zealand's. They could go through with only one win provided one of the other teams in contention lose both their matches. A tie for the fourth place on 9 points with New Zealand is a possibility for South Africa and they should make sure that they boost up their NRR as much as possible in their match against Sri Lanka. A tie for the fourth place on seven points with New Zealand is likely to not end well for South Africa as New Zealand currently have the healthiest NRR among all teams.
*The tournament regulations stipulate that if teams are tied on equal points, then number of wins will be considered before NRR to decide who finishes ahead. In the unlikely event that both number of wins and NRR are exactly the same, head-to-head between the teams will be considered to break the tie. So for example if South Africa's match against Sri Lanka is washed out and they lose to Australia, they will finish with eight points. Should India or England fail to win either of their remaining games and tie with South Africa on eight points, then the latter will be knocked out based on the number of wins.
Shiva Jayaraman is a senior stats analyst at ESPNcricinfo.com. @shiva_cricinfo