Without sanctions, would Ohio State meet Notre Dame in 2013 Rose Bowl? Doug Lesmerises analysis

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Buckeyes' bowl ban won't keep Ohio State out of the national championship game. The AP poll and BCS computers tell us a lack of schedule strength would do that anyway.

As the 10-0 Buckeyes get ready for Wisconsin and try to finish off an undefeated season, attempting not to lament their postseason ban, it's worthwhile to understand what Ohio State is most likely missing out on. It's an undefeated showdown with Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. (Also known as the best consolation prize for an undefeated team getting shut out of the title game that you could hope for.)

As it stands, the Rose Bowl will lose Pac-12 champ Oregon to the national championship game and, if the Ducks are ranked No. 1 in the BCS standings -- as they should be by the end of the regular season -- the Rose will have the first pick to replace them. With another Pac-12 team unlikely to be in the top 14 of the BCS and in that at-large pool, that leaves the Fighting Irish prime to be plucked for their just their second Pasadena placement.

The other one came in 1925. That's the historic opponent that the Big Ten champ is looking to face. Good luck Nebraska, Michigan or Wisconsin.

Ohio State fans who enjoyed the Buckeyes beating Notre Dame and Charlie Weis in the Fiesta Bowl after the 2005 season can imagine how that matchup would look in the Rose Bowl, with both teams undefeated, and with Urban Meyer (and his Notre Dame past and affection) leading the Buckeyes.

Yeah, it would be cool. Meyer wasn't talking about this specific scenario, but he admitted it has crossed his mind from time to time what the Buckeyes are losing out on.

"I could lie to you and say that I don't [think about it]," he said. "Every once in a while, but not as much as I thought. I'll hear it and read it once in a while, and I have good friends in the profession that will make a comment, and I'll think for a second.

"But then I go back to knowing exactly who we were, and you go back to how we've won and who we are right now, and we're pretty fortunate where we are. I tried years ago not to control what we can't control."

At least Ohio State almost certainly won't be missing out on No. 1. Heck, the Buckeyes can't even stay in the top five, thanks to Meyer's old friends in the SEC.

Despite being one of only four undefeated teams, the Buckeyes are sixth in the AP poll and are locked in a struggle for No. 6 in the fake BCS standings put together by The Plain Dealer each week. In both places, the Buckeyes suffer for their lack of competition in both the Big Ten and their nonconference schedule.

The six computers that make up one-third of the BCS ratings still rank the Buckeyes each week, and then the BCS then removes Ohio State when using the computer data. In the raw numbers, Ohio State is fifth twice, sixth, eighth twice and 11th in the computers. The BCS then drops out the top and bottom computer number, and awards 25 points for a top rating down to a one point for No. 25. Ohio State has 77 points, which then becomes a .770 BCS computer rating.

Even adjusting for Ohio State's presence, that would rank the Buckeyes No. 7 among the computers, behind undefeated Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon, but also behind three one-loss SEC teams in Florida (.920), Alabama (.830) and Georgia (.780).

In the full Plain Dealer BCS ratings, substituting a double dose of the AP poll for Ohio State in place of the coaches poll and Harris poll for which the Buckeyes are ineligible, the Buckeyes also rank seventh behind those same six teams, falling just short of the Gators.

So the computers don't like Ohio State's schedule, and it seems like a lack of respect for the Big Ten is hurting the Buckeyes with the voters as well.

Among the 60 AP voters, 32 ranked Ohio State ahead of Alabama and 31 ranked the Buckeyes ahead of Georgia. Yet Alabama was fourth and 47 points ahead of Ohio State, and Georgia was fifth and 11 points ahead. Why? Because a handful of voters really aren't impressed with what the Buckeyes have done so far.

Neither Alabama nor Georgia was ranked lower than No. 8 on any AP ballot. But Ohio State had 12 votes at ninth or lower: five at No. 9, four at No. 10 and three at No. 11. That's why the Buckeyes aren't No. 4 in the AP, and they'd be affected the same way in the BCS if they were eligible in the other polls.

Some argue that being ineligible for the postseason is hurting Ohio State, and that if they were eligible all voters would think longer about the Buckeyes' case. But look at Nebraska, the highest-ranked Big Ten team at No. 14. That puts Nebraska sixth among the two-loss teams, which is just another reflection of a lack of respect for the Big Ten. There are obvious reasons for that. For example, Texas A&M is the fifth-ranked SEC team in the AP poll, at No. 9. The fifth-ranked Big Ten team is Northwestern, at No. 40.

The Buckeyes do have two chances to impress voters further with wins against Wisconsin and Michigan, clearly two of the four best teams in the conference.

"It's awesome to have it that way," center Corey Linsley said. "We all knew that coming into the end of the season it was going to be these two games. We wouldn't have it any other way."

The Buckeyes can only play the schedule they have. There's always the miracle of 2007, when Ohio State was No. 7 in the BCS with one game to play, and after the six teams ahead of them lost, the Buckeyes were back to No. 1.

If Ohio State was eligible and No. 7 in the real BCS again, maybe six teams would lose again. But the Buckeyes still probably wouldn't make it. Alabama lost and stayed ahead of Ohio State. Oregon and Kansas State might do the same.

So don't regret the national championship game that almost certainly wasn't going to be there anyway. Feel free to pine for the Irish and Pasadena.