Projected Effects of Global Warming

Projected Effect Probability estimate Examples of Projected Impacts with high confidence of occurrence (67 – 95% probability) in at least some areas

Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas Very likely (90-99%) Increased deaths and serious illness in older age groups and urban poor
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife
Shift in tourist destinations
Increased risk of damage to a number of crops
Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability

Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days, frost days and cold waves over nearly all land areas Very likely (90-99%) Decreased cold-related human morbidity and mortality
Decreased risk of damage to a number of crops, and increased risk to others
Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors
Reduced heating energy demand

More intense precipitation events Very likely (90-99%) over many areas Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damage
Increased soil erosion
Increased flood runoff
increasing recharge of some floodplain aquifers
Increased pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and disaster relief

Increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought Likely
(67-90%) Decreased crop yields
Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage
Decreased water resource quantity and quality
Increased risk of forest fire

Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, mean and peak precipitation intensities Likely
(67-90%) over some areas Increased risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics and many other risks
Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure
Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves

Intensified droughts and floods associated with El Niño events in many different regions Likely
(67-90%) Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood-prone regions
Decreased hydropower potential in drought-prone regions

Increased Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability Likely
(67-90%) Increase in flood and drought magnitude and damages in temperate and tropical Asia

Increased intensity of mid-latitude storms Uncertain (current models disagree) Increased risks to human life and health
Increased property and infrastructure losses
Increased damage to coastal ecosystems